Before bitcoin’s fourth halving, the crypto asset soared to a peak of $73,794 on March 14, as recorded on Bitstamp. During the period from March 10 to April 10, bitcoin’s hashprice—representing the estimated daily earnings for 1 petahash per second (PH/s)—fluctuated between $105 and $125 per PH/s. Fast forward to this week, and as BTC hovers around $68.5K to $61.2K, the hashprice has bounced around between $47.88 and $53 per PH/s. Considering the impact of the fourth halving and increased mining difficulty, BTC’s spot price would need to climb into the triple-digit range for hashprices to again breach $100 per PH/s.
Bitcoin Mining Metrics Reveal the Price Thresholds for Restoring Pre-Halving Profits
According to recent data, bitcoin miners are enjoying a significant bump in revenue compared to just a few weeks ago and earlier this year, particularly in August when the hashprice hit an all-time low. In simple terms, the hashprice represents the estimated daily earnings for each petahash per second (PH/s) of mining power. Back in August, it dipped below $37 per PH/s, but by Oct. 20, it is sitting at $47.88.
However, with the latest halving factored in—where miner rewards fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC as of April 19—miners now need a substantially higher BTC value to revisit hashprices above $100 per PH/s. The equation, though, doesn’t take into account shifts in mining difficulty, variations in transaction fees, or improvements in mining efficiency—each of which could tweak the outcome.
Assuming all those factors remain constant (meaning no changes in difficulty, fees, or efficiency), BTC’s price would have to land somewhere between $135,500 and $171,000 to bring hashprices back to the $105-$125 range. That’s a leap of 97.81% to 149.63% from the current $68.5K to $61.2K zone. In reality, though, these variables do change.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty climbed by 4.12% this month, and another increase is projected for Oct. 22. Additionally, onchain fees often fluctuate in tandem with BTC’s price movements and, in a sense, they already have amid the latest rally. Should BTC reach the $80,000 to $90,000 range, onchain fees could climb to new highs, boosting miners’ revenues beyond today’s fee market conditions.
And let’s not forget that mining efficiency keeps getting better. The latest models from leading manufacturers like Bitmain, Microbt, Auradine, and Canaan have significantly improved their machines’ joules per terahash per second (TH/s) efficiency. Bitmain and Microbt offer units pushing over 400+ TH/s, while Bitmain’s new Antminer U3S21EXPH clocks in at an impressive 860 TH/s.
This mining powerhouse produces about two-thirds of a petahash or 0.86 PH/s. All these factors are bound to influence BTC’s overall hashprice as spot prices fluctuate. It’s safe to say that prices between $85,000 and $100,000 would keep miners in a far more comfortable spot, regardless of other variables. The shifting dynamics of bitcoin mining highlight the delicate balance between efficiency, market forces, and profitability.
As miners adapt to changing rewards and fluctuating metrics like onchain fees, the race to optimize operations becomes crucial. Staying ahead means embracing technological advancements while navigating unpredictable market conditions—defining a future where success hinges on resilience and strategic adaptation in an ever-evolving crypto economy. In the meantime, a steady climb in prices is consistently advantageous for bitcoin miners.