Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has declared Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition candidate, the winner of the Venezuelan presidential election bet. The decision, made days after the election, ignores the official results announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which proclaimed Maduro as president amidst fraud allegations from opposition leaders. This prompted several users to question the process behind this outcome.
Polymarket Venezuelan Election Bet Outcome Raises Questions About Due Process
The Venezuelan presidential election bet has put Polymarket, one of the leading cryptocurrency-based prediction market platforms, in the spotlight due to its outcome. Polymarket finally decided to award the victory to Edmundo Gonzalez, an opposition candidate who according to fraud allegations and voting tallies collected surpassed Maduro by over 3 million votes.
However, the official results offered by the National Electoral Council (Spanish: Consejo Nacional Electoral, CNE), the institution in charge of elections in Venezuela, announced Maduro as the winner with over five million votes. The institution has failed to show detailed voting center numbers, which has caused part of Venezuelan society to distrust the disclosed numbers.
The outcome of the bet that reached $6.1 million has angered some users, who criticize the decision taken due to the conditions declared for ending the bet in favor of any candidate. The prediction market conditions specified that “the primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Venezuela, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.”
X user Frederick Recio criticized the considerations taken to decide in favor of Gonzalez, stressing that official sources and international recognition for Maduro were ignored in favor of alleged fraud proofs.
He stated:
It’s crucial to understand that Polymarket’s role is not to pass moral judgments or speculate on potential fraud. Its purpose is to resolve markets based on official results and established rules.
X user wrhl also complained about the decision, assessing that Polymarket was biased and depended on the political positions of UMA holders instead of official documents to decide the truth behind each bet.
Polymarket has not offered an official statement on this bet after its resolution. However, after the election results were announced, the platform hinted at acknowledging Maduro’s victory on an X post.
At the time, Polymarket declared:
To say that Maduro is President is not to say that he earned or deserves it. People deserve to know who their President will be, even in cases of corruption.