Bettors in the two biggest prediction markets covering the World Series—as well as the dominant sports book sites online—concur: The Los Angeles Dodgers will win the World Series.
Polymarket and Manifold Markets give the Dodgers a 94% chance of winning the series, while BetOnline, an online gambling site based in Panama, shows the Dodgers favored to win with -2200 odds, compared to +1100 for the Yankees. FanDuel showed the Yankees as the underdog coming into game four with +1200 odds versus the Dodgers’ -2000.
Who wins tonight’s matchup in New York, however, is much in dispute among the major betting sites, with gamblers eyeing a comeback by the Yankees. Data from cryptocurrency prediction markets platform Polymarket shows that 58% of bettors are backing the Yankees to win the pivotal game four, extending the series to a fifth game that would take place Wednesday.
Prediction market Manifold Markets’s gamblers are focusing on early action in the fourth game of the series, which will be played tonight, with 54% betting that a run will be scored in the first inning.
Gamblers on FanDuel gave the Yankees a slight edge coming into game four, with odds of -106 for under 8.5 runs compared to -114 for over 8.5 runs for the Dodgers. Additionally, the money line for the matchup currently favors the Yankees at -146 to the Dodgers at +124. The spread for the two teams is +1.5 and -1.5, respectively.
BetOnline, however, was split, giving both the Dodgers and Yankees -110 for game four with 8.5 over and under odds and a run line of +1.5 at -155 for Los Angeles and +135 for New York, meaning the Dodgers need to win by at least two runs to pay out at -155 odds. In contrast, the Yankees can either win or lose by one run and still pay out at +135 odds. The money line for a straight Dodgers win sits at +130, while the Yankees have a -142 moneyline, making them the favorites for game four.
According to DraftKings, game four tonight in New York is expected to feature moderate scoring, with the total set at 8.5 runs. Odds favor the over at -114 for the Dodgers, meaning a $114 bet wins $100 if the total runs exceed 8.5. The under odds are set at -106, meaning a $106 bet returns $100 if the total score of the game stays below 8.5 runs.
Despite gamblers hoping for a Yankees comeback, even the nearly 100-year-old London-based William Hill sportsbook gives Los Angeles the overall nod to win the series.
The gambling company gave the Yankees 10/1 odds to win the World Series while giving the Dodgers 1/20 odds, showing Los Angeles as the favorite. While the odds show the Yankees still have a fight chance in New York, they ultimately tip the series in favor of the Dodgers.
Sports gamblers appear certain that the Dodgers will win the World Series, but as baseball legend Yogi Berra famously said, “It ain’t over ’til it’s over.”
Edited by Andrew Hayward