China is reportedly considering a fiscal package that includes more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of new borrowing over the next few years to stabilize its fragile economy.
The plan, expected to be approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) at a meeting from November 4-8, aims to combat local government debt risks and stimulate growth, according to people familiar with the matter.
The proposed package includes 6 trillion yuan of special government bonds to be issued over three years starting in 2024. The financing would primarily target informal local government debt, which has ballooned amid a long-running property crisis. The entire fiscal plan would be financed by special treasury and local government bonds, equivalent to more than 8% of China’s GDP, and signals Beijing’s move toward more aggressive economic support measures.
The timing of the NPC meeting could give Beijing flexibility in adjusting its fiscal package if former President Donald Trump wins, the sources said, as his return is expected to increase economic tensions between the two countries.
The new information is consistent with market speculation that China is preparing a significant stimulus, though it falls short of the “2008-like boom” some investors had hoped for. The fiscal discussions follow aggressive monetary measures the central bank implemented in late September, the most significant support since the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to addressing local government debt risks, the NPC Standing Committee will also greenlight up to 4 trillion yuan in special-purpose bonds to purchase idle land and property over the next five years, according to the sources. Financial analysts said the moves were an indication that Beijing’s current priorities are to stabilize the financial system and support domestic demand, with an emphasis on addressing hidden debt burdens first.
Beijing’s policy approach prioritizes local government debt, financial stability and then stimulating domestic demand, said Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC Bank.
While sources said the financial plans were not finalised and were subject to change, the timing of the upcoming NPC session and its clash with the US elections signal a strategic approach.
*This is not investment advice.