The third-quarter (Q3) earnings report abruptly ended Tesla’s (NASDAQ: TSLA) losing streak and led the electric vehicle (EV) maker to have one of its best stock market days ever, as the EV maker surged more than 24% within a single session.
Subsequent market moves enabled Tesla to grow its market capitalization by some $150 billion within hours – and Elon Musk’s wealth by some $20 billion.
Such a rise, while enabling TSLA to turn green in the year-to-date (YTD) chart after several months in the negative, also reignited the question of what might be next for the EV giant, particularly in the wake of the event of 2024: the U.S. presidential elections.
Is a Harris victory dangerous for Elon Musk and Tesla stock?
Once a prominent Democrat, Elon Musk has become increasingly involved in the electoral process and has been throwing his weight around supporting Republican candidate Donald Trump.
This scenario – and particularly once the possibly illegal promise of payments to voters who pledge to support Trump in swing states – has led many American netizens to fear Musk will face some pressure, even persecution, should Kamala Harris win.
Indeed, the climate in the United States is such that a recent poll conducted by The Times found that a quarter of citizens fear a civil war after the elections.
The fears for Musk’s safety in case of a Democratic victory loop back into Tesla’s stock market fortunes, as the billionaire’s own image and activities are widely seen as pivotal for the EV maker – this may or may not contradict some of the other bull arguments for TSLA.
Trump vs. Harris: Who would be better for TSLA shares
Fortunately for Tesla investors, the TSLA stock price target is likely to remain the same whether Trump or Harris wins – at least in the mid to long term.
In fact, despite the overall situation, an immediate rally is almost guaranteed should a Republican enter the Oval Office and a plunge if a Democrat remains in the White House.
Looking farther into the future, the bull case for Tesla under a Harris administration is that the Democrats have historically been far keener to push for a greener economy and are thus likely to maintain the benefits associated with buying EVs instead of fossil fuel-powered cars.
The tax credit, for example, goes as high as $7,500 – 15% of a Model Y – at press time on October 25.
On the other end, Trump – previously a rather vocal opponent of electric cars – has turned somewhat softer after getting endorsed by Musk and may, therefore, likewise help with Tesla’s sales through means such as legislation.
Even if the Republican candidate mostly maintains the previous, more nonchalant approach to the climate catastrophe, his promises of increasing tariffs on various foreign goods could vicariously benefit Tesla. Thanks to its size compared to the other West-based EV makers, Musk’s EV maker can more easily absorb the additional hurdles.
Is Tesla hiding behind Washington’s skirt?
Still, despite what may appear intuitive, TSLA stock may benefit slightly more from a Harris victory than from Trump’s as the company – along with Musk’s other enterprises – has benefitted from and continues to benefit from government subsidies and similar grants.
Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp., and SpaceX were fueled by these money injections in their early years and received nearly $5 billion by 2015, according to a Los Angeles Times investigation.
The Republican Party – and Musk – is vocal about cutting national spending, and various green transition programs are likely to be among the first victims of the cuts.
Moving beyond the potential green energy or protectionist policies and subsidies, virtually all of Elon Musk’s companies are heavily intertwined with the Federal Government and have received government contracts worth at least $15 billion within the last decade, per a New York Times report from October 20.
Such involvement means that Elon Musk already wields significant political influence and some strategic partnerships – such as the use of SpaceX to avoid sending astronauts to space together with the cosmonauts – no matter the next president.
Still, considering the billionaire’s possible role in a second Trump administration, he would likely gain additional prominence and exposure.
However, it is worth pointing out that such positioning may not be beneficial for Musk long-term given how polarized many in the U.S. already are and depending on what happens throughout the potential administration’s lifetime.
Are Elon Musk and Tesla Motors already being persecuted?
Finally, there remains one area in which Elon Musk – and Tesla, by extension – could vastly benefit from a Trump victory.
The billionaire’s companies are embroiled in a significant number of government investigations and disputes – the most recent being a probe into a death involving Tesla’s self-driving technology.
Depending on their outcome, Musk might find it useful that, while president, Trump pardoned perjurers, arsonists, fraudsters, murderers, and many others.
On the other hand, given that President Biden did not become known as Jim Crow Joe or get his other, more recent nickname without a reason, it might not matter who sits in the Oval Office.
In truth, assuming the various organs of the American government work as advertised, Elon Musk and his companies – including Tesla – should be neither helped nor harmed, no matter who occupies the White House at any given time.
What can investors expect of Tesla stock if Harris wins?
When all is said and done, it is more likely than not that Tesla’s stock price in the coming years will depend far less on who wins in November – no matter what Musk’s comments and actions are – and far more on the EV maker’s merits as a company.
Should TSLA’s current trend continue – the shares are, with a press time price of $265.25, up 21.32% in the last five days and 6.92% in the green YTD – it might hit the Street high forecast of $310 within the coming 52 weeks, even if the U.S. gets another Democrat commander-in-chief.
On the other hand, it is worth pointing out that – again, notwithstanding the election outcome – Tesla stock could face another major downturn.
It would not be the first example of a brief yet strong post-earnings rally in 2024, and the EV maker did miss the revenue forecast despite some highly positive metrics.