Analyst Known as “FED Spokesperson” Reveals Interest Rate Decision Forecast After Inflation Report
The Fed is considering a rate cut in September following the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the “FED spokesman,” said the CPI figures pave the way for a possible rate cut at the FED’s next meeting.
The labor market has shown signs of potential weakness recently, further complicating the Fed’s decision. The main debate at the September meeting will center on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or a larger 50 basis points. Inflation data released Wednesday did not provide a definitive answer, leaving the decision dependent on upcoming labor market reports. Key data points include weekly initial jobless claims and the August nonfarm payrolls report due Sept. 6.
The July CPI report showed a moderate inflation rate, with consumer prices rising 2.9% over the past 12 months, compared with a 3% annual increase in June. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% after falling 0.1% the previous month. These figures were in line with economists’ expectations, which had predicted a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3% annual increase, according to the FactSet consensus estimate.
Despite the mild inflation data, strong housing cost growth could dampen enthusiasm. However, Fed leaders have hinted that they are ready to start cutting interest rates next month. This trend is partly due to mild inflation data in May and June.
*This is not investment advice.