Ethereum’s (ETH) price throughout August has left investors worried owing to the intense volatility.
The hope of recovery from September is high, but BeInCrypto’s analysis suggests a different direction.
Ethereum May Not See a Rise Above $3,000
Ethereum’s price hovering under $2,800 may continue to do so for the foreseeable future. It might even recover to $2,900, but this could be the extent of the altcoin leader’s rise in September.
This is because experts are noting a relatively bearish-neutral outcome for ETH. According to Alvin Kan, the COO at Bitget Wallet, there is a chance that ETH holders could move to offload their holdings.
“Recently, the ETH Foundation transferred 35,000 ETH to Kraken as part of its 2024 budget, potentially signaling a sell-off valued at around $94 million. This move has raised alarms among whale investors, who may choose to sell in advance,” Kan told BeInCrypto.
This selling would result from FUD or panic generated by the move. Additionally, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at Cryptoquant, highlighted a bigger concern in an exclusive statement to BeInCrypto.
“One thing that we are paying attention to is the evolution of ETH’s total supply and its relationship with network fees. The total supply of ETH has been constantly growing since early April, shortly after the Dencun upgrade. The total supply is now at 120.313 million ETH, the highest since May 2023. This increase in supply represents 53% of the decline in ETH supply since The Merge in September 2022. At this pace, ETH supply would recover its pre-Merge level in approximately three months,” stated Moreno.
Ethereum Total Supply. Source: CryptoQuant
Moreno cited the Dencun upgrade as the cause behind this increase in supply, which is making ETH inflationary again. Since the upgrade, it has significantly lowered transaction fees and reduced the ETH fee burning rate. As a result, the supply is increasing at an exponential rate, ameliorating bearish concerns.
ETH Price Prediction: A Soft Landing or Launch Off?
Over the coming few weeks, Ethereum’s price could witness a mix of drawdown and bounce back. At the moment, ETH is changing hands at $2,471, and the macro price action, along with the aforementioned factors, suggests a drop to the lower trend line at $2,300.
A bounce off this line could begin an uptrend for Ethereum’s price, bringing it above $2,681. Expectations are flipping this level into support, as it could set ETH up for a rally in October.
Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
On the other hand, if the anticipation for Q4 builds the bullish momentum earlier, ETH could rise further. Breaching the resistance of $2,930 would also result in a breakout from the descending wedge. This would invalidate the bearish-neutral thesis, preparing ETH for a rise beyond $3,000.