Ethereum ($ETH) saw a significant surge in value today, jumping 14% to reach $3,540 within a couple of hours. This happened after a series of tweets from notable figures in the financial analysis community. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, announced an increase in the estimated odds of a spot Ether ETF approval by the U.S. SEC to 75%, up from 25%. This optimistic update was shared in response to a tweet from Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store.
Update: @JSeyff and I are increasing our odds of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%), hearing chatter this afternoon that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue), so now everyone scrambling (like us everyone else assumed they’d be denied). See… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) May 20, 2024
Analysts Highlight SEC’s Potential Shift on Spot Ether ETF Approval
Balchunas, alongside fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, said that the SEC might be reconsidering its stance on this increasingly political issue. The analysts noted that this sudden shift has left many scrambling, as the general expectation had been a denial of the spot Ether ETF applications. Seyffart further clarified that their increased odds specifically pertain to the SEC’s 19b-4 rule change approvals due by May 23rd, with S-1 registration statement approvals potentially taking weeks to months longer.
A quick note, @EricBalchunas and increased odds to 75% for spot #Ethereum ETF approvals. But that’s for the 19b-4 May 23rd deadline (@vaneck_us’s deadline) We also need S-1 approvals. It could be weeks to months before we see S-1 approvals and thus a live Eth ETF h/t @NateGeraci
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) May 20, 2024
Geraci’s initial tweet outlined the dual approval process required from the SEC for spot Ethereum ETFs to launch, involving both 19b-4 exchange rule changes and S-1 registration statements. He pointed out that while the SEC could approve the 19b-4 changes, they might delay the S-1 approvals, reflecting a delay in approval.
Market Surges Following ETF Approval Speculation
The market responded rapidly to Balchunas’s update, not just boosting Ethereum’s value but also lifting Bitcoin ($BTC) by 5%, pushing it past the $70,000 mark for the first time in weeks. Additionally, $UNFI saw a dramatic 32% increase making good use of the market sentiment. The market is pumping so fast that our writers had to update the price stats multiple times during the writing process.
Just now, QCP Capital has shared unconfirmed news that the SEC has asked crypto exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings as soon as possible. This step could mean that the Ethereum ETF approval is on the cards. However, the decision can go any way as no one has predicted 100% chances of approval.