Ethereum’s (ETH) price has barely pulled itself together after a devastating week, and investors seem to want to jump back in.
However, looking at the market’s conditions, it would be wise to hold off for now and wait until the right buying opportunities are present.
Ethereum Accumulation Is Not Ideal
Ethereum’s price has just returned above $3,000, and many consider this an accumulation opportunity. However, despite the slight price rise, the broader market cues are still bearish.
One of these is the fact that the most influential cohorts of any asset, the whales, are vanishing from the network. This is observed in the total addresses with balances of more than $100,000 and $1 million.
Within a week, the total number of whales has declined by 14% from 150,000 to 130,000. This is not HODLing or selling but a straight-up exit, which is concerning.
Ethereum Whale Addresses. Source: Glassnode
On the other hand, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio presents an opportunity. The MVRV ratio assesses investor profit or loss. Ethereum’s 30-day MVRV sits at -10.4%, signaling losses and potentially prompting accumulation. Historically, ADA corrections occur within the -5% to -13% MVRV range, labeling it an opportunity zone.
Ethereum MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment
However, even with ETH in the opportunity zone, another factor, in addition to the whales’ disappearance, must be considered.
ETH Price Prediction: Securing the Support Floor
While above $3,000, Ethereum’s price has still not secured the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement line as support. This line is also known as the bear market support floor, and flipping it could enable recovery.
Following this, investors can begin accumulating, which would increase their chances of seeing profits again. Until then, it would be wise to practice caution.
Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
This is because, in the uncertain event where Ethereum’s price dips below $3,000 again, it could slide to $2,800. This would lead to consolidation for ETH and also invalidate the bullish thesis.