- Analyst Cowen sees signs of a potential ETH/BTC bottom, with support from key technical levels and market timing indicators.
- Cowen remains cautiously optimistic, estimating a 60/40 chance that ETH/BTC has bottomed but warns of possible dips by year-end.
- Ethereum could outperform in 2025, as Cowen anticipates ETH/BTC gains. He recently doubled his ETH by timing his BTC-to-ETH conversion.
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen sees ETH/BTC getting close to a low point. Bitcoin’s market domination is close to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, while Ethereum recently closed above its 50-day Simple Moving Average which is a possibility of strength. ETH/BTC reaching a bottom has historically been linked to these trends. However, he remains cautious, noting a slight chance ETH/BTC could still dip before the year ends.
For the 1st time in 3 years, there is an actual chance that #ETH / #BTC has bottomed. If it has not bottomed, the actual bottom should only be marginally lower than the current bottom of 0.03465.
Evidence for a bottom:
-ETH/BTC daily close back above 50D SMA. In 2016 and 2019… https://t.co/A4LqZey9AJ pic.twitter.com/UR1aWXNqA6— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) November 9, 2024
Signs of a Bottom in ETH/BTC
The 50D SMA, which was the level at which ETH/BTC dropped to its lowest points in 2016 and 2019, was crossed by ETH, and the dominance of Bitcoin retraced to the 0.618 Fib level, which is consistent with previous cycles in which the dominance peaked. With this, Cowen sees a potential bottom for ETH/BTC for the first time in three years.
Furthermore, the timing aligns with Federal Reserve actions. Cowen points out that ETH/BTC bottomed about five weeks after the first rate cut in 2019. A similar timeline may be playing out now, as the second rate cut has occurred this cycle.
Potential Downside Risks Remain
Despite these indicators, Cowen notes some risks to his thesis. In previous cycles, ETH/BTC typically bottomed when Quantitative Tightening (QT) ended. Currently, QT remains active, suggesting ETH/BTC could still dip slightly. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance often increases in Q4 of halving years, potentially dragging ETH/BTC down again in December.
Cowen remains cautiously optimistic, assigning a 60/40 chance that the bottom is in. If ETH/BTC does not dip further before the end of the year, he believes the recent low of 0.03465 could represent the cycle’s bottom. However, he also leaves room for a possible higher low in the coming months.
Outlook for 2025
Cowen is confident about Ethereum’s role in a crypto portfolio, anticipating ETH/BTC gains in 2025. He recently converted his Bitcoin holdings back to Ethereum at around 0.035 BTC per ETH, effectively doubling his ETH since 2022. Although he acknowledges that ETH/USD could drop, he believes ETH/BTC will strengthen over the next year.