With Bitcoin (BTC) soaring above the $60,000 mark, market interest is focused on whether the rally will be sustained or short-lived. The recent robust rally has sparked discussions in the crypto community, with analysts drawing optimistic comparisons to the 2017 bull market.
This historical parallel suggests a promising outlook for Bitcoin as it mirrors past patterns, hinting at an upcoming cycle top.
In a July 16 analysis shared by CryptoCon on X, it was noted that Bitcoin experienced multiple attempts at all-time high (ATH) resistance in 2017, similar to what is occurring in 2024.
Historical patterns and resistance levels
In the analysis, cycle tops are prominently marked around 2013, 2017, and 2021, with each top aligning with the MVRV-Z (Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score) entering the “Cycle Top Zone.” This indicates overbought conditions before market corrections.
Notable support retests in March 2017 and several times from 2022 to 2024 suggest a solid foundation for the next bull run. The MVRV-Z score consistently dips into the support retest zone before initiating new bullish cycles, showing a pattern where Bitcoin’s price surges after retesting support levels.
As of July 2024, the chart indicates a recent support retest in the MVRV-Z score, suggesting a potential foundation for the next bullish cycle.
The all-time high for Bitcoin in the previous cycle was approximately $65,000, reached in 2021. This level now acts as a significant resistance point that Bitcoin must surpass to confirm a new bullish trend.
The resistance and ATH levels in past cycles show a similar pattern, particularly the 2017 cycle, where Bitcoin faced resistance before breaking through to new highs. The MVRV-Z score also followed a similar trajectory, dipping into the support retest zone and then climbing towards the cycle top zone.
This historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin might be on the verge of repeating a similar bullish cycle, with the potential to surpass the $65,000 resistance level and aim for new highs.
Bitcoin price targets
In terms of price targets, a steady climb towards the previous cycle all-time high of approximately $65,000 is expected in the short term (6 to12 months) as the market builds momentum from the support retest.
In the mid-term (12 to 24 months), potential new all-time highs exceeding $100,000 are plausible as the bull run intensifies and the MVRV-Z score approaches the cycle top zone.
The chart suggests that Bitcoin is in a strong position to initiate a new bull run following the recent support retest in July 2024.
Conclusion
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $64,700, with a 1.5% increase in the last 24 hours. In summary, historical patterns indicate that the next major cycle top could occur in the next one to two- years, with price targets potentially exceeding $100,000.
To confirm the start of a bull run, sustained support at current levels, increasing trading volumes, and favorable macroeconomic factors such as regulatory developments and institutional adoption are essential.
With the right market conditions and increased adoption, Bitcoin could see new highs, potentially exceeding $100,000 by late 2025 or early 2026. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring key indicators to capitalize on this potential bullish cycle.