June is a historically losing month for Bitcoin (BTC), a pattern repeating as the end of the month approaches. Conversely, July is a historically winning month, with primarily positive returns for investors who built long positions.
Finbold retrieved data from CoinGlass, highlighting Bitcoin’s monthly returns for the last 12 years since 2013. Notably, all nine months have had gains on their 12-year averages and medians except for June, August, and September.
This year’s June has not been different. As of this writing, BTC registers 5% losses month-to-date, just one week before it ends. On average, June brought 0.19% losses to Bitcoin traders and a median of 0.5% negative performance since 2013.
So far, 2024 has had four winning months and two losing months, while June had a 6:12 winning ratio.
Historical pattern forecasts a nearly 10% surge for Bitcoin in July
On the other hand, July has a 7:11 winning ratio since 2013, with 2020 having the most positive returns. This month has previously marked the start of last cycle’s bull market with 24% gains from July 1 to 31, 2020.
Over the years, July has accumulated gains of 7.98% and 9.6% on average and median, respectively. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could surge from nearly 10% up to 25% in 31 days.
Interestingly, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Credible Crypto forecasts an impending 30-day impulse for BTC to $100,000. Other analysts have been eagerly awaiting a 4-month resistance range breakout at $72,000, eyeing the $83,000 level.
BTC could reach any of these targets in July, consolidating the historical winning month.
Bitcoin price analysis
In the meantime, Bitcoin trades at $64,260, testing the range’s support while trying to regain momentum. The leading cryptocurrency has accumulated 52.25% gains year-to-date.
If BTC remains trading at this level by the end of the month, a 10% to 25% rally could drive Bitcoin to $70,000 and up to $80,000 by July 31. A target aligned with other analysts’ projections.
However, cryptocurrencies are inherently volatile digital assets, and historical performance does not guarantee future results. Investors must remain cautious and have a clear entry and exit strategy to increase their chances of gains.